Memorandum for SECDEF: Restore "Shock" in Strategic Planning

The Department of Defense (DOD) needs to re-institutionalize horizon scanning for strategic shock and integrate this perspective into its strategy, plans, and risk assessment. Defense-relevant strategic shocks are disruptive, transformational events for DOD. Though their precise origin and nature are uncertain, strategic shocks often emerge from clear trends. Shocks are often recognized in advance on some level but are nonetheless shocking because they are largely ignored.